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Oh, I can very much assure you I do not harbor that illusion...'free markets' only exist in small pockets of the economy.FOS » Today, 2:46 am » wrote: ↑ You see I can explain why musk would n punished for daring to try to reform journalism. People who think we live in A democracy with free markets cannot explain it. I can both predict and explain it
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But if he already got a taste of the bitter medicine, shouldn't that clue him in?FOS » Today, 2:44 am » wrote: ↑ Musk got in a lot of trouble for mentioning that he was thinking of starting his own media. In fact right after that he was hit with some government stuff with tesla. I forget exactly what it was.
Musk clearly had no idea what he was getting into. Blissfully naive.
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I thought ppl like Musk already knew...FOS » Yesterday, 12:09 am » wrote: ↑ That kinda depends on the influence it has. Imagine if elon musk read this book...
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FOS » 25 Jan 2021, 11:54 pm » wrote: ↑ I will predict that the 70$ I spent on a hardcover by nesta helen Webster will far outpace in value all of your stocks.
Probably.
I actually have the vast majority of NW in cash/cash equivalents, sitting in a bank run by (((chosen ones)))...
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Oh, the universe has such a cruel sense of humor...Blackvegetable » 25 Jan 2021, 9:09 pm » wrote: ↑ Sometimes things are cheap for a reason..
When studies break down components of commodity returns, you make money on momentum, and carry....
Gamestop's motto: Power to the players.
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I could be wrong, but judging by the charts it seems like the bottom is in...I would estimate downside to be 20% at most and upside to be...well, you be the judge of that...but I can assure you the SP 500 has absolutely zero probability of doubling or tripling in 5 years...Blackvegetable » 25 Jan 2021, 9:09 pm » wrote: ↑ Sometimes things are cheap for a reason..
When studies break down components of commodity returns, you make money on momentum, and carry....
Downside target at the end of the next bear market is anywhere from 1400 (where it peaked in 2007) to 1800 (2015 price - corporate earnings have stagnated since then).
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I would say the #1 evidence against the "Wet market" hypothesis is the fact China allowed wet markets to reopen back in April:GeorgeWashington » 24 Jan 2021, 4:51 pm » wrote: ↑ One year after the pandemic started, World Health Organization advisor Jamie Metzl wants China to come clean about the origins of the COVID-19 virus.
The Kansas City-born, New York-based Metzl, who served as Deputy Staff Director of the Foreign Relations Committee under then Senator Joe Biden (2001-2003) and before that on the National Security Council (1997-99) and the State Department (1999-01) under President Bill Clinton), theorizes it was most likely an accidental lab leak in Wuhan.
“There’s no irrefutable evidence,” said Metzl, who was appointed to the WHO’s expert advisory committee on human genome editing in 2019 and is also the author of Hacking Darwin.
“There’s just more evidence and as more evidence arrives, the case for accidental lab leak, in my view, increases.”
We caught up with Metzl down the line from San Miguel de Allende:
What about the original theory that this all started in a wet market in Wuhan?
That was a lie. And the Chinese government knew very early on that that was a lie. And so in the face of overwhelming evidence in May of last year, the Chinese government shifted its position.
Do you get the idea of scary viruses being created in a lab may seem a little sci-fi?
It may feel like sci-fi to people but what’s happening is sci. There is a field of study called “gain of function” research, which is highly controversial in which some scientists amplify the virility of viruses. We know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was involved in gain of function research on bat coronaviruses.
Is it because this specifically started in China that we still don’t know how COVID-19 started?
If there had been an outbreak in Congo or some country in Africa and that country, in the earliest days of the pandemic, prevented World Health Organization investigators from going onto the scene of the outbreak, for nearly a month, the world would have gone berserk.
Will a change of the U.S. administration help find an answer?
Biden will be tougher on China than President Trump because President Biden is very smart and strategic and he understands that American power and American strength doesn’t rest on bluster, it rests on principles, it rests on partnerships, and alliances and accountability. And the Trump administration unfortunately gave China a pass by over politicizing the question of the origin of the virus by alienating America’s partners and allies.
https://torontosun.com/news/world/who-a ... a-lab-leak
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wu ... d=70119116
TBH I am not particularly concerned about the origins of the virus, or whether the CCP is an evilllllllllllllllllllllllllll organization (a message the right-wing Epoch Times likes to beat into the heads of their subscribers)...it is whether the response to the Wuhan virus is justified (it isn't).
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Prior to computerized trading and options, wild price swings and massively bullish movements were quite commonplace...IkeBana » 25 Jan 2021, 4:56 pm » wrote: ↑ When I'm king we go back to the old NYSE where if a buy or sell is gonna get done it needs to be written down on a scrap of paper, hand carried across the trading floor and processed...all the ways it used to get processed. No more electronic trading, no more investment bankers and **** derivatives, their bundled paper products and their leveraging their own investment in the products at 1 of their own capital dollars to 40 borrowed dollars.
Just look at the Nikkei Index in the 1980s, the Hong Kong Index from 1989 - 1997, etc.
Leverage has been around since humans dealt with currencies/debt, so there is no way around that...
Computerized trading "helps" the little guy...those commission fees were quite absurd/nothing more than parasitism on behalf of Wall Street...
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Cannonpointer » 17 Dec 2020, 1:05 pm » wrote: ↑ If "horse spittles overwhelmed" (which I proved was fake news by your INABILITY TO NAME the nameless horse spittles that are fake-news overwhelmed) is a problem, then explain why it was not a problem in the 2017-18 flu season.
In the 2017-18 flu season - also on trump's watch, but for some reason unimportant, - hospitals really were overwhelmed - not fake news overwhelmed. They were treating people in tents. And no one said **** about trump is a bad man.
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-hand ... -patients/
And here is a whole google page full of dire warnings about swine flu - back when the repukes were pulling this same **** on obama, and I was scorching their asses for it:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=hospit ... 9-1&ia=web
Under obama, by your lights and mine, it was the FLU'S fault. Not obama's fault. Then, too, neither of us believed the fake articles about horse spittles being "overwhelmed" - because of the adverbs and adjectives. It was fake news, and we laughed at it. In the IS world, they were not overwhelmed. They were "nearing" overwhelm - they were "under threat" of being overwhelmed - yada yada.
But in 2017-18, hospitals were ACTUALLY overwhelmed.
But we had russia russia russia - we didn't NEED flu flu flu. I guess I should be happy that "you people" are down to the bottom of the barrel like this?
Agreed...I already posted the simple formula for determining whether this was a lie (hoax) or not...simply Google search prior to January 1, 2020 and you will find a plethora of articles claiming "hospitals are overwhelmed due to flu season."
The simple reason for this is ICUs are very expensive to run and maintain, hence hospitals have an incentive to keep ICUs AS CLOSE to capacity as possible (without going past capacity, of course - that makes for bad PR), but your typical progressive retard will never figure that out.
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Aside from #3 (the scamdemic did not kill hundreds of thousands...the only thing it killed was any remaining slivers of journalistic integrity), I agree with the rest of your complaints...SJConspirator » 09 Dec 2020, 10:55 pm » wrote: ↑ For the past four years, Republicans have controlled.the WH and controlled the Senate for even longer. They have gotten everything they ask for.
1. Every newly appointed judge on every level in the entire country for years now has been strictly fundamentalist conservative approved.
2. They got their big tax cut for the rich and gutted regulations along with the middle class, just like they wanted.
3. Covid has killed hundreds of thousands
4. Homelessness has exploded, more people are poor and desperate than ever.
5. The billionaires have made huge gains while the mass of humanity in the US suffers and slowly dies off. WTF more could Republicans want?
Despite.being utterly dominant politically, socially, etc. basically having every **** wish instantly granted, and literally having their most burning desire fulfilled by plunging the vast majority of Americans into deep poverty and taxing them to death, they are running around crying and saying they have been cheated.
You whiny ******* are.impossible to satisfy. Grow the.**** up.
Blaming "Republicans" seems to be wrongheaded - while I am certain Republicans do not care about poverty, wealth inequality, etc. I am disinclined to believe Democrats give a hoot either...just look at the homeless situation and 3rd world strata of wealth inequality in San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, and other liberal strongholds.
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IkeBana » 25 Jan 2021, 4:11 pm » wrote: ↑ The only reason these stocks are up by these numbers us because they're up this much from last March when the DOW had bottomed at 18,000. Use February 2020 when the DOW was over 29,000 and the percentages don't look anything like this.
The reason why the stock market is so **** up is because of day traders, hedge funders, computer driven algorithmic trading and all the other **** which has turned a once nice place for investors to put some of their money, onto a **** casino for traders and speculators.
Oh, and one more thing...
The old paradigm of buying "undervalued" stocks is less applicable today than it ever was before...perhaps that will change in the future, but it certainly does not apply to the current state.
I learned this lesson the painful way when I went fully defensive in 2017 (I bought "undervalued" and "cheap" consumer staples and banks) and missed out on massive gains in Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.
The reason "expensive" stocks get more expensive (and hence, return massive 25%+ YoY capital gains as opposed to a measly 5% dividend + 5% capital appreciation) is quite simple:
1. A company that is growing revenues @ 50% or more every year, and whose stock price is @ $20, goes to $40 as investors catch on.
2. The company announces a share dilution @ $35. Stock drops to $33, but this correction is temporary.
3. The company uses the proceeds from newly minted equity to EXPAND their underlying business - more investment in marketing, RD, human resources, etc. This is all done without taking on more debt.
4. Company posts another blowout quarter, with growing revenues steady @ 50%.
5. Stock price, which was @ $33, is now at $50.
See how it works? The more expensive a stock gets, the more leverage it has to dilute shares, which it can then use to expand its underlying business.
This paradigm will soon come to an end...but like I said, I would NOT want to miss out on these juicy gains. They will NOT come by for many, many years (at least ~1 decade after the peak).
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IkeBana » 25 Jan 2021, 4:11 pm » wrote: ↑ The only reason these stocks are up by these numbers us because they're up this much from last March when the DOW had bottomed at 18,000. Use February 2020 when the DOW was over 29,000 and the percentages don't look anything like this.
The reason why the stock market is so **** up is because of day traders, hedge funders, computer driven algorithmic trading and all the other **** which has turned a once nice place for investors to put some of their money, onto a **** casino for traders and speculators.
Every bubble in its final innings will see wild price swings...you could say the same about Bitcoin and bonds that yield negatively. Stocks are not as absurd when compared to those.
This is why I am suggesting exposure to commodities, the one final undervalued asset class.
The market distortions are not caused by what you mentioned - they are caused by trillions in M1/M2 being 'printed' in addition to bullish sentiment.
There will come a time for a long and painful bear market...after ~2 or so years more or insanity. I certainly wouldn't want to miss out on the finale.
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But that is exactly why it is such a great buy...what levels of alpha can be generated by entering @ generational lows?Blackvegetable » 25 Jan 2021, 3:31 pm » wrote: ↑ But looking at the "max" chart, dba has been a steady downhill ride for more than a decade...without a great deal of variance..
Think you might be slicing allocation a bit thin?
In terms of commodity subsectors, I am quite agnostic...I find it simpler to buy them all instead of attempting to pick winners/losers...the winners will more than compensate for losers...even if you are right, and agriculture goes nowhere, there is still NG/oil/uranium/copper/etc...
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I'm well aware of that...I think it is rather hilarious an Assburgers like Michael Burry (whose cost basis in Gamestop was around $3.50) has made a windfall off a dying retail company...Blackvegetable » 25 Jan 2021, 3:24 pm » wrote: ↑ They're all "gimmick" trades...
But why hold DBA?
A 14 year supercycle?
I don't hold DBA, there's a commodity ETF (COMB) with a much lower expense ratio with similar allocations across the various commodities...that's the one I own.
It's much less messy owning one ETF (COMB) compared to having to buy 10 different tickers.
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Billion dollar hedgies getting crushed by 18-23 yr old retards trading on Robinhood...the percentages are up from when I posted
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@Blackvegetable @Cedar
I second what this guy says...
https://twitter.com/RampCapitalLLC/stat ... 0152026114
AMC +28%
GME +12%
EXPR +103%
RKT +15%
BB +27%
PLTR +11%
Boomers holding onto legacy stonks (AT&T, Chase, Realty Income, Chevron, Boeing) be like...
https://giphy.com/gifs/memecandy-WTcj5b17IZ8xbdCMBs
I second what this guy says...
https://twitter.com/RampCapitalLLC/stat ... 0152026114
As of 3:09 PM ET 1/25/2021...If you don't have at least 1 stock that's up more than 10% today can you even call yourself an investor?
AMC +28%
GME +12%
EXPR +103%
RKT +15%
BB +27%
PLTR +11%
Boomers holding onto legacy stonks (AT&T, Chase, Realty Income, Chevron, Boeing) be like...
https://giphy.com/gifs/memecandy-WTcj5b17IZ8xbdCMBs