Anticipating The Greatest Talking Point Ever Talked...

This political chat room is for you to sound off about any political ideology and discuss current political topics. Everyone is welcome, yes, even conservatives, but keep in mind, the nature of the No Holds Barred political chat forum platform can be friendly to trolling. It is your responsibility to address this wisely. Forum Rules
247 posts
User avatar
GeorgeWashington

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 7,833
Politics: Revolutionary
Location: Mount Vernon, VA
Contact:

SoapBeerPopcorn
Olivaw » 29 Jul 2020, 1:49 pm » wrote:
duck615 » 29 Jul 2020, 12:16 pm » wrote: Still over 99% survival rating...
Mortality rate is 3.43%
Case Fatality Rate is 9.92%
https://www.covid19projections.com/projections/US

Please justify your figures. Bonus points if you identify the long term health problems associated with COVID-19.
That website is ****

Case fatality rate, which they have listed as mortality rate, is 3.43%

Infection fatality rate is the number given to the general public and used by policy makers. 

The website has one purpose - to scare people, and it does so dishonestly. 

Why do they have to lie if it is really that scary? 
Log in or Register to remove ads


Blackvegetable

Unread post

      
      
Posts: 53,820

Antifa
duck615 » 30 Jul 2020, 8:16 am » wrote: your opinion than...
Have you already forgotten your pal?
Huey » wrote: I had to lie to do it, but hey, I get to do that for a living.

If that is really him I won’t post for a month.

I repeat slogans.

I don't care about frequency. 4 of the last 8 winners were from small countries. THat is the point.

Don't bother if it is going to be from behind. It could be anyone.

User avatar
Huey

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 63,459
Politics: Liberacon

Blackvegetable » 30 Jul 2020, 8:35 am » wrote: What part did I miss, Narrative ****?

Specifically..

Doesn't matter.  Still narrative.  So you have to decide right now if you are allowing narrative or not.  It is "lowlife" to disuss another poster, in narrative forum, that does not post here.  And lie about it. 

 
“There is No Big There, There”

No further indictments. No instances of obstruction

Alex Vindman-"As the transcript is in the public record, we are aware of what was said"


https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/Read-Alexander-Vindmans-Opening-Statement-on-Trumps-Ukraine-Call-564036951.html


User avatar
omh

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 5,538

I navigate by it. I see all the holes in every reality to the sum of the whole humanity scenario past, current, arriving next all the time going on here in this moment series parallel living takes place.
when your reality won't explain real completely, you joined a socially corrupt intellectual mind that won't tolerate you using your own brain.

righteous

Unread post

   
   
Posts: 842

Blackvegetable » 30 Jul 2020, 7:39 am » wrote: **** yourself, cretin.
Up in Flames you Unlettered Eggplant
 

User avatar
Olivaw

Unread post

User avatar
   
   
Posts: 574
Politics: Liberal

GeorgeWashington » 30 Jul 2020, 8:36 am » wrote: That website is ****

Case fatality rate, which they have listed as mortality rate, is 3.43%

Infection fatality rate is the number given to the general public and used by policy makers. 

The website has one purpose - to scare people, and it does so dishonestly. 

Why do they have to lie if it is really that scary?
You’re a Trump supporter so I recognize that you have a duty to dear leader to cry “lie’ when faced with data that undermines his talking points. Nonetheless, the data is from John Hopkins and the formulas are disclosed. Therefore, no lie.

Duck declined to justify his 99% survival rate assertion. Will you explain it on his behalf. 
Science is not a liberal conspiracy.

User avatar
omh

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 5,538

Olivaw » 30 Jul 2020, 1:01 pm » wrote: You’re a Trump supporter so I recognize that you have a duty to dear leader to cry “lie’ when faced with data that undermines his talking points. Nonetheless, the data is from John Hopkins and the formulas are disclosed. Therefore, no lie.

Duck declined to justify his 99% survival rate assertion. Will you explain it on his behalf.
are those formulas statistically averaged by how many people had covid-19 ignoring the other illnesses at the same time?
when your reality won't explain real completely, you joined a socially corrupt intellectual mind that won't tolerate you using your own brain.

User avatar
GeorgeWashington

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 7,833
Politics: Revolutionary
Location: Mount Vernon, VA
Contact:

SoapBeerPopcorn
Olivaw » 30 Jul 2020, 1:01 pm » wrote:
GeorgeWashington » 30 Jul 2020, 8:36 am » wrote: That website is ****

Case fatality rate, which they have listed as mortality rate, is 3.43%

Infection fatality rate is the number given to the general public and used by policy makers. 

The website has one purpose - to scare people, and it does so dishonestly. 

Why do they have to lie if it is really that scary?
You’re a Trump supporter so I recognize that you have a duty to dear leader to cry “lie’ when faced with data that undermines his talking points. Nonetheless, the data is from John Hopkins and the formulas are disclosed. Therefore, no lie.

Duck declined to justify his 99% survival rate assertion. Will you explain it on his behalf.
The mortality rate from your link should include the entire population of the US

A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval.

When mortality rates are based on vital statistics (e.g., counts of death certificates), the denominator most commonly used is the size of the population at the middle of the time period. In the United States, values of 1,000 and 100,000 are both used for 10n for most types of mortality rates. Table 3.4 summarizes the formulas of frequently used mortality measures.


The case fatality rate should be deaths/confirmed

The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition.

Furthermore, it makes no mention of infection fatality rate, which is the most accurate measure of morbidity and it is also the number given to the public and used by policymakers. 

Your link is tinfoil hat fear mongering.

User avatar
GeorgeWashington

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 7,833
Politics: Revolutionary
Location: Mount Vernon, VA
Contact:

SoapBeerPopcorn
Olivaw » 30 Jul 2020, 1:01 pm » wrote: Duck declined to justify his 99% survival rate assertion. Will you explain it on his behalf.
Is your preferred news not reporting the 99% survival rate?

13 May 2020 - IUPUI scientists estimate the infection-fatality rate for the novel coronavirus in Indiana to be 0.58 percent, making it nearly six times more deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an infection-fatality rate of 0.1, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iup ... virus.html

07 May 2020 - The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%). County-specific rates varied from 0.5% to 3.6%. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455?utm_campaign=covid19fasttrack&utm_medium=press&utm_content=basu&utm_source=mediaadvisory&

01 May 2020 Further, we analyze the deaths and infections in New York City to estimate an overall IFR for the United States of 0.863 percent.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3590771

26 Mar 2020 - Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89–6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38–3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3–2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2–1.3), respectively.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118348/

16 Mar 2020 - The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China12 . These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

03 Mar 2020 - The death rate of the seasonal flu varies year to year but is about 0.1%, compared to about 2% for COVID-19.

https://scholarworks.iupui.edu/bitstream/handle/1805/22896/Duszynski_WhyPublicHealthOfficials.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Several more in preprint/peer review ...

https://www.medrxiv.org/search/covid%252Bifr

While the CFR is extremely valuable for experts, IFR is increasingly being called for by policy-makers and the lay public as an estimate of the overall mortality from COVID-19.

Conclusion Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until May, 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53-0.82%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20089854v4
 
 

User avatar
supraTruth

Unread post

User avatar
   
   
Posts: 774
Politics: Democratic
Location: Internet
Contact:

Huey » 29 Jul 2020, 12:07 pm » wrote: On July 23, the age distribution of reported COVID-19 cases was provided on the health department websites of 49 states, New York City, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. While children represented only 8.4% of all cases in states reporting cases by age, over 288,000 children have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic.

A smaller subset of states reported on hospitalizations and mortality by age, but the available data indicated that COVID-19-associated hospitalization and death is uncommon in children.

At this time, it appears that severe illness due to COVID-19 is rare among children. However, states should continue to provide detailed reports on COVID-19 cases, testing, hospitalizations, and mortality by age so that the effects of COVID-19 on children’s health can continue to be documented and monitored.

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019- ... ta-report/
& the parents & grandparents living at home?

User avatar
supraTruth

Unread post

User avatar
   
   
Posts: 774
Politics: Democratic
Location: Internet
Contact:

GeorgeWashington » 30 Jul 2020, 1:40 pm » wrote: The mortality rate from your link should include the entire population of the US

A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval.

When mortality rates are based on vital statistics (e.g., counts of death certificates), the denominator most commonly used is the size of the population at the middle of the time period. In the United States, values of 1,000 and 100,000 are both used for 10n for most types of mortality rates. Table 3.4 summarizes the formulas of frequently used mortality measures.


The case fatality rate should be deaths/confirmed

The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition.

Furthermore, it makes no mention of infection fatality rate, which is the most accurate measure of morbidity and it is also the number given to the public and used by policymakers. 

Your link is tinfoil hat fear mongering.
I'm sorry, but I have to go with the 151K dead Americans from COVID-19 in only 4 1/2 months, which I do find scary, considering that the flu only kills around 60k or less in a year.
 

User avatar
nefarious101

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 29,141

Blackvegetable » 29 Jul 2020, 11:54 am » wrote: Speaking of the Turd Family Robinshart, young Barron Trump’s school will not, it turns out, be reopening in the fall, because doing so would be unsafe; we are in the middle of a pandemic, you see. Your children are not to be given the same consideration of course, no, your families are to be conscripted into President Crotchrot’s re-election campaign, as extras in their Busby Berkeley spectacular, “Everything Is So Very Normal, We Promise!” and no, the campaign will not reimburse any funeral costs, not even the child coffins even though they’re smaller.

http://showercapblog.com/welp-guess-wer ... ooj-today/

LOL...you got him now don't you?

Blackvegetable

Unread post

      
      
Posts: 53,820

Antifa
nefarious101 » 30 Jul 2020, 6:58 pm » wrote: LOL...you got him now don't you?

Hardly...

Who doubts that li'l Barron will be sent to PS 119 as an example?
Huey » wrote: I had to lie to do it, but hey, I get to do that for a living.

If that is really him I won’t post for a month.

I repeat slogans.

I don't care about frequency. 4 of the last 8 winners were from small countries. THat is the point.

Don't bother if it is going to be from behind. It could be anyone.

User avatar
nefarious101

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 29,141

Blackvegetable » 30 Jul 2020, 7:23 pm » wrote: Hardly...

Who doubts that li'l Barron will be sent to PS 119 as an example?

Don't worry yourself about it...the Trump's can afford whatever is needed

User avatar
Olivaw

Unread post

User avatar
   
   
Posts: 574
Politics: Liberal

GeorgeWashington » 30 Jul 2020, 3:33 pm » wrote: Is your preferred news not reporting the 99% survival rate?
Let’s stick to scientific and medical sources. I’ll leave the selection of “preferred” news to those of you who have pledged fealty to the current president of the United States or Russia.  Every news source that I am aware of reported Trump’s claimed 99% survival rate but reported it as the President’s opinion and not scientific fact. Rightly so.
13 May 2020 - IUPUI scientists estimate the infection-fatality rate for the novel coronavirus in Indiana to be 0.58 percent, making it nearly six times more deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an infection-fatality rate of 0.1, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iup ... virus.html 07 May 2020 - The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%). County-specific rates varied from 0.5% to 3.6%. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455?utm_campaign=covid19fasttrack&utm_medium=press&utm_content=basu&utm_source=mediaadvisory& 01 May 2020 Further, we analyze the deaths and infections in New York City to estimate an overall IFR for the United States of 0.863 percent. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3590771 26 Mar 2020 - Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89–6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38–3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3–2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2–1.3), respectively. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118348/ 16 Mar 2020 - The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China12 . These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf 03 Mar 2020 - The death rate of the seasonal flu varies year to year but is about 0.1%, compared to about 2% for COVID-19. https://scholarworks.iupui.edu/bitstream/handle/1805/22896/Duszynski_WhyPublicHealthOfficials.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
These are credible sources, albeit old. Therefore, I did not read the papers and will accept your quotes.  All were published between March and mid May. The most recent paper is 2.5 months old which is an eternity in terms of this virus. You’ve chosen to use IFR and not CFR (see below). Quoted above are IFR figures between 0.58% and 3.6%. Assuming you calcalulate your survival rate by subtracting IFR from 100, it does not robustly prove a 99%+ survival rate.   
Several more in preprint/peer review ... https://www.medrxiv.org/search/covid%252Bifr While the CFR is extremely valuable for experts, IFR is increasingly being called for by policy-makers and the lay public as an estimate of the overall mortality from COVID-19. Conclusion Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until May, 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53-0.82%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20089854v4
Although unpublished at this time, I find these studies more compelling because they are more current and appear to rely on better testing. I like that it discusses Case Fatality Ratio vs. Infected Fatality Ratio.

 John Hopkins published a Mortality chart which uses CFR. it corresponds with the earlier link I provided because it uses the same data. Will you now claim that John Hopkins is also fear mongering or will you accept the truth? 



CFR is calculated by dividing deaths by the number of confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19.. It’s based on hard medical data.  It offers an expert a figure for the average persons odds of death after a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. It’s currently 3.4% but an individuals odds depends on age, fitness, health care etc. Anyone who claims this metric to be **** betrays a poor understanding of it.

IFR is calculated by dividing deaths by the estimated number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. The number is lower because, as I assume you know,  some individuals are asymptomatic Uncertainty lies in estimating the number of infected individuals due to the shortcomings of past antibody tests and the factors mentioned above. 

So which is right? I’d be willing to accept that the data may suggest that the odds of death are below 1% if one is asymptomatic but the odds are above 3% if one is diagnosed with COVID-19.  

Ducky and Trump have yet to address the long term health effects on those who survive and the evidence (inconclusive) that immunity may be short lived.  

150,000 dead Americans later and some people still refuse to accept the severity of the pandemic and wear a **** mask. 

 
 
Last edited by Olivaw on 31 Jul 2020, 1:45 am, edited 4 times in total.
Science is not a liberal conspiracy.

User avatar
Olivaw

Unread post

User avatar
   
   
Posts: 574
Politics: Liberal

omh » 30 Jul 2020, 1:06 pm » wrote: are those formulas statistically averaged by how many people had covid-19 ignoring the other illnesses at the same time?
I’m not a medical researcher so I cannot answer authoritatively. My reading suggests that asymptomatic individuals tend to be younger and healthier than those who are afflicted with the disease. We can probably assume that many of the individuals who present with COVID-19 also suffer from other ailments. 

If an individual with a preexisting respiratory disorder contracts COVID-19 and dies, then COVID-19 would be recorded as a cause of death.  AFAIK the persisting respiratory disorder would be noted.  

An ER nurse told me that it is unlikely that medical personnel would jeopardize their practice by misattributing the cause of death. The rules are extremely strict, for obvious reasons. 
 
Last edited by Olivaw on 30 Jul 2020, 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Science is not a liberal conspiracy.

Blackvegetable

Unread post

      
      
Posts: 53,820

Antifa
nefarious101 » 30 Jul 2020, 7:34 pm » wrote: Don't worry yourself about it...the Trump's can afford whatever is needed
Yea...THAT'S  the point.


**** dimwit.
 
Huey » wrote: I had to lie to do it, but hey, I get to do that for a living.

If that is really him I won’t post for a month.

I repeat slogans.

I don't care about frequency. 4 of the last 8 winners were from small countries. THat is the point.

Don't bother if it is going to be from behind. It could be anyone.

User avatar
omh

Unread post

User avatar
      
      
Posts: 5,538

Olivaw » 30 Jul 2020, 9:49 pm » wrote: I’m not a medical researcher so I cannot answer authoritatively. My reading suggests that asymptomatic individuals tend to be younger and healthier than those who are afflicted with the disease. We can probably assume that many of the individuals who present with COVID-19 also suffer from other ailments. 

If an individual with a preexisting respiratory disorder contracts COVID-19 and dies, then COVID-19 would be recorded as a cause of death.  AFAIK the persisting respiratory disorder would be noted.  

An ER nurse told me that it is unlikely that medical personnel would jeopardize their practice by misattributing the cause of death. The rules are extremely strict, for obvious reasons.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha patented answer. well rehearsed. Program complete. A perfected social mind where the initial brain doesn't register why the body is specifically here.
when your reality won't explain real completely, you joined a socially corrupt intellectual mind that won't tolerate you using your own brain.

User avatar
skews13

Unread post

User avatar
     
     
Posts: 3,243

Polar1ty » 29 Jul 2020, 2:44 pm » wrote: Why did you quote a website with either an abysmally poor understanding of epidemiology or is intentionally deceptive?

Every epidemiologist worth his or her weight knows, beyond a shred of doubt, that there is a large "hidden" pool of people who have the virus but are not counted as "cases" because it is infeasible/not logistically possible to have everyone tested/counted, unless you want to foist a police state upon the people. In some cases the tests return false positives.

So really, the "death rate" or "infection fatality rate" needs to account for this hidden pool of unconfirmed and asymptomatic cases.

"Confirmed cases" used as the denominator is extremely misleading. Since there is no way to know for sure how large this "hidden pool" is, epidemiologists (most of whom are hardly "right-wing propagandists" or supporters of the "right-wing" agenda) provide their best estimates.

BBC: IFR is 0.5% to 1%

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

Medrvix: IFR is 0.04% to 0.12%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022434v3

Caitlin Rivers from John Hopkins: IFR is 0.5% to 1% (based on best estimates)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... st-thought

Fauci (deep state/globalist/Bill Gates tool) concedes IFR "MAY BE" (translation: "ALMOST CERTAINLY") less than 1%

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

"Indiana's infection fatality rate turned out to be about 0.58%, or roughly one death for every 172 people who got infected. And the results in Indiana are similar to those suggested by antibody studies in several other areas. In New York, for example, an antibody study indicated the state has an infection fatality rate around 0.5%."
Great. Open up your own school, convince people to send their kids to it, and your all set.

Let’s us know how it works out for you.


 

Blackvegetable

Unread post

      
      
Posts: 53,820

Antifa
The "Access Hollywood" segment, filmed as Trump was attempting to vote in the 2004 election, shows Trump alongside TV host Billy Bush visiting multiple New York City polling locations. Trump, however, is blocked from voting at each location because he is not on any of the voter rolls at each stop.


Trump can be seen becoming increasingly frustrated before declaring, "I'm going to fill out the absentee ballot."



https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/politics ... index.html



The worst ever...
Huey » wrote: I had to lie to do it, but hey, I get to do that for a living.

If that is really him I won’t post for a month.

I repeat slogans.

I don't care about frequency. 4 of the last 8 winners were from small countries. THat is the point.

Don't bother if it is going to be from behind. It could be anyone.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Al Donal, Alexa [Bot], Annoyed Liberall, Baidu [Spider], Bill Gates [Bot], Cannonpointer, Cedar, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Ike Bana, Isabel, Karen Taint, Majestic-12 [Bot], nefarious101, NeoConvict, Olivaw, OpenSiteExplorer [Bot], Polar1ty, RollingRock, Semrush [Bot], SJConspirator, skews13, sooted up Cyndi, Steve Jobs [Bot], Termin8tor, thelion, Twitter [Bot], Vegas, WillFranklin, Yandex [Bot], Zeets2 and 810 guests


Log in or Register to remove ads