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nefarious101

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Zeets2 » 13 Jan 2022, 7:13 pm » wrote: Isn't it obvious?  The heroes they voted for, Demented Joe and Slut Kamala, are painfully out of touch with reality, their approval ratings are at record lows, and that makes those who voted for them ignorant idiots for believing that the two of those morons could do a better job of running the country than Trump had proven he was able to do with the great success he had!  Selecting two complete failures throughout their careers to replace the guy who did a terrific job running the country is virtually impossible to defend, and is evidence of their own lack of foresight, their gullibility, their slavish belief in what their told on CNN, and their pure ignorance.  Though they'd never admit it, they know their idiot is solely responsible for failing to secure the border, failing to safely remove our troops from Afghanistan, failing to live up to their promises to end the pandemic, failing to order the Covid tests kits when Biden refused to sign the order, failing to stop the rise in gas prices, and causing 40 year highs in the inflation rate.

They're lost as to which excuse to what crisis to offer first, proving beyond any doubt...

...There is NOTHING dumber than a liberal!

that's exactly the way most people I know see it too

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LibDave

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Blackvegetable » 13 Jan 2022, 6:14 pm » wrote: Before we go any further..

Have you?
By your statement then you haven't ever voted for ANY POTUS.

Correction, According to Philosophy there is another possibility.  You might just have never voted for an incumbent.

I'm not sure what is your reason for asking, but Yes I have voted in presidential races.
 
 
Last edited by LibDave on 13 Jan 2022, 7:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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neue regel

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Vegas » 13 Jan 2022, 2:57 pm » wrote: Inflation is up higher than ever before. 

Housing prices are increasing at a ridiculous rate.

Gas prices are still up. 

Due to this foreboding, I shall prepare myself.
The Fed telegraphing the fact they will raise rates, perhaps as soon as March, makes a certainty. 

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Blackvegetable

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 7:25 pm » wrote: By your statement then you haven't ever voted for ANY POTUS.

I'm not sure what is your reason for asking, but Yes I have voted in presidential races.
By your statement then you haven't ever voted for ANY POTUS.
By your statement, you are completely clueless.

To satisfy yourself that it is so, look at the deficits in 1993, 2001, 2009 and 2017.
 

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Blackvegetable

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neueregel » 13 Jan 2022, 7:29 pm » wrote: The Fed telegraphing the fact they will raise rates, perhaps as soon as March, makes a certainty.
What does that "signal" about the Fed's overall view of the economy?

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LibDave

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neueregel » 13 Jan 2022, 7:29 pm » wrote: The Fed telegraphing the fact they will raise rates, perhaps as soon as March, makes a certainty.
Well that's not EXACTLY what they said.  They implied it is a possibility they MIGHT raise rates after each session (4 X) and if necessary MAY have a special unscheduled meeting as well IF it turns out the supply side isn't a temporary issue.  This while continuing to TAPER OFF their asset purchases and stimulus.  Taper off?  Why would they continue AT ALL with the highest inflation EVER recorded in the US (15.5%)?
 

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LibDave

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Liberalsarescum » 13 Jan 2022, 7:53 pm » wrote: I have a generator , and guns and reloas .know how to hunt and grow food , also  as I live in fl I keep at least a 45 day food supply gas
Good job.

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LibDave

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Blackvegetable » 13 Jan 2022, 7:30 pm » wrote: By your statement, you are completely clueless.

To satisfy yourself that it is so, look at the deficits in 1993, 2001, 2009 and 2017.
What are you going on about here?  We've run deficits as far back as you can go.  What is your point?

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LibDave

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 8:28 pm » wrote: What are you going on about here?  We've run deficits as far back as you can go.  What is your point?
EVERY president runs deficits.  What president hasn't?

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Polar1ty

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Recession in 2023~ likely ending in 2024 or early 2025, followed by brief recovery, and then a long drawn out depression (a term they won't use of course but you'll know it is a depression by its severity) in the 2030s.

I expect a lot of statistical manipulation to make it seem like real GDP growth is positive but it won't be.

Also reading the comments, I'm tempted to agree LibDave's comment about people being economically illiterate is true...but I could probably say the same about him.

He's like that college basketball star beating up junior high kids not realizing when he's met someone who plays for the NBA.
Last edited by Polar1ty on 13 Jan 2022, 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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LibDave

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Polar1ty » 13 Jan 2022, 8:31 pm » wrote: Recession in 2023~ likely ending in 2024 or early 2025, followed by brief recovery, and then a long drawn out depression (a term they won't use of course but you'll know it is a depression by its severity) from ~2031 to early 2040s.
Recovery?  How is this recovery going to come about?

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Polar1ty

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 8:32 pm » wrote: Recovery?  How is this recovery going to come about?
Well there are a number of possibilities...#1 possibility is the transition to AI definitely gives GDP a short-term boost. It'll cut down on labor costs and improve business profitability...until of course the workers run out of money because they become structurally unemployed.

Looking forward to those autonomous trucks and French fryers in restaurant kitchens.

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Polar1ty

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"AI" has largely been a meme since the 1990s...so people might be tempted to dismiss it as just another fad.

That is no longer true. Computing power has grown exponentially and so has human understanding of "machine learning" since then...it's ready to be implemented now.

I would also say the recent labor crunch and the sheer # of unwilling/rancorous workers (if you don't believe me, head to reddit.com/antiwork and you'll just see how your typical employee views work in 2022) means employers will be slowly bullied into automating bottom labor.


Edit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/

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Jinn Martini

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Youbbett there is !

And not just one either !

It'll be a recurring phenomenon !

Just like a new COVID   "mutation"  every now and then !

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Polar1ty

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 8:32 pm » wrote: Recovery?  How is this recovery going to come about?
I must point out I, too, have a pessimistic outlook but I'm not delusional enough to think there won't be some recoveries along the way. The technical charting suggests after ~2042 or so, the economy will begin its secular upward trend again for reasons nobody can accurately predict.

Perhaps it is your libertarian philosophy that blinds you to the machinations of the world. As long as there is innovation (which there is) there will be moar GDP! even if our politicians are corrupt, competition is stymied by the combined forces of large corporations and the oligarchy that rules the Special Economic Zone known as the USA, and a certain ethnic group is only interested in taking rents without contributing anything of comparable value.

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LibDave

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Polar1ty » 13 Jan 2022, 8:52 pm » wrote: I must point out I, too, have a pessimistic outlook but I'm not delusional enough to think there won't be some recoveries along the way. The technical charting suggests after ~2042 or so, the economy will begin its secular upward trend again for reasons nobody can accurately predict.

Perhaps it is your libertarian philosophy that blinds you to the machinations of the world. As long as there is innovation (which there is) there will be moar GDP! even if our politicians are corrupt, competition is stymied by the combined forces of large corporations and the oligarchy that rules the Special Economic Zone known as the USA, and a certain ethnic group is only interested in taking rents without contributing anything of comparable value.
And how do you propose the Fed heads off the collapse to bring about this "recovery"?

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Polar1ty

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 9:04 pm » wrote: And how do you propose the Fed heads off the collapse to bring about this "recovery"?
They are utterly impotent. Nothing they do at this point matters...

Just as the recession and depression are inevitable, so will be the short-lived "recovery" interlude.

If you really want to get into the nitty gritty details, the US economy has not grown organically since 2000, which just reinforces my point about how powerless they are.

(Take away the "G" from the GDP equation)



 

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LibDave

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Polar1ty » 13 Jan 2022, 9:27 pm » wrote: They are utterly impotent. Nothing they do at this point matters...

Just as the recession and depression are inevitable, so will be the short-lived "recovery" interlude.

If you really want to get into the nitty gritty details, the US economy has not grown organically since 2000, which just reinforces my point about how powerless they are.

(Take away the "G" from the GDP equation)
Well then why would you think there will be a recovery?  This isn't a business cycle downturn.  It would require them to deleverage and like you said they are utterly impotent at this point and nothing they can do to reverse its course.  We've seen this EXACT same scenario before.  The result has ALWAYS been the same.  Hyperinflation without bounds.  And in this case you are talking about the world's reserve currency.  There has only been one successful case in which hyperinflation has been halted.  Chile under the Chicago boys with "shock therapy".  And they weren't the world's reserve currency.

And when they "CLAIM" this is the highest inflation in 40 years they are full of BS!  40 years ago inflation was calculated completely differently.  If you used the original method of calculation (which is the more accurate and honest estimation) the actual inflation rate would be 15.5%.  More than double the highest inflation rate we've ever seen.  In fact the whole reason they've continued to make changes since 1982 was to make the inflation calculated appear lower than it actually is.  Why?  Because it serves them politically and it also saves the government lots of money in COLA adjustments.  It also allows them to continue the charade and buy votes by convincing the stupid they are getting something for nothing while their pockets are being picked.  In every case when they change the calculation they "CLAIM" they are doing it to improve the calculation.  It's funny how every change always results in a lower inflation estimate.

Perhaps most sickening is the CPI is only useful as a short-term cyclical variable.  It's easy to figure out how much inflation there is.  Just do the simplest calculation of all and find out how much the government increased the money supply.  Long term inflation rates are due to one thing only, government printing money, PERIOD.  All this CPI stuff is just the smoke and mirrors.
 

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Blackvegetable

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 8:28 pm » wrote: What are you going on about here?  We've run deficits as far back as you can go.  What is your point?
Is the deficit larger or smaller in 2001 than in 1993?

How about 2017 and 2009?
 

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Blackvegetable

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LibDave » 13 Jan 2022, 9:47 pm » wrote: Well then why would you think there will be a recovery?  This isn't a business cycle downturn.  It would require them to deleverage and like you said they are utterly impotent at this point and nothing they can do to reverse its course.  We've seen this EXACT same scenario before.  The result has ALWAYS been the same.  Hyperinflation without bounds.  And in this case you are talking about the world's reserve currency.  There has only been one successful case in which hyperinflation has been halted.  Chile under the Chicago boys with "shock therapy".  And they weren't the world's reserve currency.

And when they "CLAIM" this is the highest inflation in 40 years they are full of BS!  40 years ago inflation was calculated completely differently.  If you used the original method of calculation (which is the more accurate and honest estimation) the actual inflation rate would be 15.5%.  More than double the highest inflation rate we've ever seen.  In fact the whole reason they've continued to make changes since 1982 was to make the inflation calculated appear lower than it actually is.  Why?  Because it serves them politically and it also saves the government lots of money in COLA adjustments.  It also allows them to continue the charade and buy votes by convincing the stupid they are getting something for nothing while their pockets are being picked.  In every case when they change the calculation they "CLAIM" they are doing it to improve the calculation.  It's funny how every change always results in a lower inflation estimate.

Perhaps most sickening is the CPI is only useful as a short-term cyclical variable.  It's easy to figure out how much inflation there is.  Just do the simplest calculation of all and find out how much the government increased the money supply.  Long term inflation rates are due to one thing only, government printing money, PERIOD.  All this CPI stuff is just the smoke and mirrors.
Define "hedonic adjustment"

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